Position sizing
Cap each Moon position at 5% of your total portfolio. If you want to double down, sell something else first.
To the Moon Dough
Take strategic swings without torching your base.
High-growth bets are exciting, but they only work when your Safe Dough is locked down. This playbook keeps you curious and experimental while protecting the cash that keeps your life moving.
Max 20%
of total portfolio in Moon plays
2 guardrails
stop-loss and profit targets
1 recap
per trade before you reload
Guardrails before launch
Stop-loss discipline
Set exit prices before you hit buy. For stocks, consider a 15-20% stop. For crypto, decide the exact dollar loss you are willing to eat.
Profit locks
Always scale out on wins. Sell a third when you are up 30%, another third at 60%, and let the rest ride only if the thesis still holds.
Time box the trades
Set a deadline for your thesis to play out. If the catalyst does not hit in 90 days, roll profits (or losses) back to Safe Dough.
Cash extraction rule
When a position doubles, pull the original capital back to Safe Dough. Let only house money keep riding the thesis.
Max drawdown review
If your Moon slice falls 25% from its peak, pause new trades, re-evaluate every thesis, and rebuild cash until Safe Dough is topped off.
Case study: Guardrails vs. gut calls
Guarded trader: Taylor
- Allocation: 15% of total portfolio ($1,500) split across three AI stocks.
- Stop-loss: 18% downside set with broker alerts.
- Profit plan: Trim 30% of each position at +35%, move proceeds back to Safe Dough.
- Outcome: Two positions hit profit targets, one stopped out. Net gain: +$420 and Safe Dough balance grew.
Taylor logs every move in the Moon trade card and never exceeds guardrails.
Seat-of-the-pants trader: Jordan
- Allocation: YOLO'd 50% of portfolio into one meme coin after a Discord tip.
- No stop-loss or thesis--just vibes and screenshots.
- Outcome: Coin drops 60% overnight, panic sell locks in loss. Tuition savings get raided to cover rent.
- Lesson: Without caps and exit rules, Moon Dough can nuke Safe Dough.
Guardrails do not kill upside--they preserve capital so you can try again.
The Moon Dough lineup
Growth stocks
Focus on companies with revenue acceleration, strong cash runways, and product-market fit. Track earnings calls and shipping velocity, not just social buzz.
- Check revenue and free cash flow trends.
- Read 10-K risk sections before you buy.
- Use limit orders to avoid chasing spikes.
Sector or thematic ETFs
Access AI, clean energy, cybersecurity, or biotech themes in one move. Use ETFs to spread risk when you are testing a new thesis.
- Pair long-term hold ETFs with short-term catalysts.
- Review expense ratios and liquidity.
- Rebalance Moon exposure quarterly.
Crypto allocation
Stick with majors (BTC, ETH) for core exposure. Any DeFi or meme coin experiment belongs in the "fun money" slice.
- Use hardware or trusted custodial wallets.
- Keep records for taxes from day one.
- Dollar-cost average instead of aping in.
Creator & startup bets
Backing friends or buying equity on platforms like Republic? Treat it like angel investing: high risk, illiquid, story-driven.
- Never invest money you would not gift.
- Document the thesis and exit plan.
- Expect a 5-7 year lockup, if any return.
Options lotto allocation
Reserve 1-2% for defined-risk option plays (debit spreads, long-dated calls) when you have a catalyst and clear stop.
- Cap max loss upfront and avoid naked short positions.
- Use spreads or broken wing butterflies to cheapen exposure.
- Close losers fast--theta is relentless.
Infrastructure plays
Consider brokers, chip makers, or picks-and-shovels companies that benefit from hype cycles without meme volatility.
- Track utilization data (datacenter bookings, API usage).
- Pair with covered-call ETFs to generate cash while you wait.
- Rotate profits back into Safe Dough when valuations stretch.
Due diligence templates
Stocks & ETFs
- Snapshot the 3-year revenue and free cash flow trend.
- Read the latest 10-K risk factors + earnings call transcript; highlight red flags.
- Map catalysts in a calendar (product releases, FDA approvals, earnings dates).
- Set valuation guardrails: target entry P/S or P/E bands, exit when stretched.
Crypto & on-chain
- Confirm circulating vs. max supply and unlock schedule.
- Track daily active wallets, TVL, and developer commits.
- Audit smart-contract risk via reputable explorers; avoid unaudited contracts.
- Plan custody: hardware wallet or insured exchange; log transaction IDs for taxes.
Creator & startup bets
- Write a one-page memo: problem, product, traction, runway, exit vision.
- Identify dilution risk and investor rights (SAFE, equity, revenue share).
- Set communication cadence--quarterly investor updates or financials.
- Document worst-case scenario. If zero return is acceptable, proceed; if not, pass.
Keep Moon allocation honest
Allocation snapshot
Recalculate weekly: Total portfolio ($7,800) vs. Moon Dough exposure.
- Safe Dough: $6,100 (78%)
- Moon: Growth stock $650, Thematic ETF $420, Crypto $280 = $1,350 (17%)
- Dry powder: $350 (5%) reserved for opportunities
If Moon slice creeps above 20%, redirect gains or trim positions within 24 hours.
Notion/Sheets layout
- Columns: Asset, thesis, entry price, size %, stop, target, review date, status.
- Use conditional formatting to flag any position >5% or missing a stop.
- Add a "Parked in Safe Dough" column to track how much cash returned to base.
Download the template via the Tools hub or duplicate our Notion tracker.
Scoreboard to keep hype honest
Win rate vs. risk
Track wins, losses, and average R-multiple. If you are only winning 30% of trades, make sure average winners are 3x the losers.
Capital velocity
Measure how long dollars stay deployed. If positions stagnate for months, rotate to higher conviction or send cash back to Safe Dough.
Stress thermometer
Rate stress after each session. Feeling anxious daily? Allocation is too high--trim Moon exposure until you sleep fine.
Tax + reporting hygiene
Short-term gains
Trades held under a year are taxed at ordinary income rates. Set aside 20-25% of profits in a tax sub-account so April is painless.
Wash sale rules
Stocks and ETFs sold at a loss cannot be repurchased within 30 days if you want to harvest that loss. Track dates in your trade journal before rebuying.
Crypto specifics
Every swap and stake is a taxable event. Export .csv files from exchanges monthly, and capture gas fees--they can offset gains.
Mindset guardrails
Cooling-off protocol
After a stop-loss triggers, enforce a 24-hour no-trade window. Use the time to review your thesis and log lessons before redeploying.
Accountability buddy
Share your Moon trade card with a friend or mentor weekly. If you cannot explain the trade, you probably should not place it.
Reward discipline
Route 10% of Moon profits to a "fun fund." Celebrating process wins reduces the urge to revenge trade the next hit.
Operate like a student fund manager
Idea funnel
Capture ideas in a shared doc. Log ticker, catalyst, conviction score, and planned exit. If you cannot explain it in three sentences, it is noise.
Trade journal
After each move, note what happened, how you felt, and what the data said. Wins and losses both sharpen the next thesis.
Weekly review
Block one hour each Sunday: update stops, review earnings calendars, and confirm you are still under your Moon allocation cap.
De-risk on autopilot
Route all Moon gains back to Safe Dough by default. Only redeploy once you have logged the results and the plan still checks out.
Build a research engine before placing bets
Signal tracking
Create a lightweight dashboard with columns for sector, catalyst, timeline, and confidence. Pull signals from earnings calls, Discord communities you trust, professor shout-outs, and industry newsletters. If a thesis only appears once, log it but wait for a second confirmation before allocating cash.
Schedule two 30-minute research blocks each week. Use the first to collect raw information and the second to translate it into trade hypotheses. Guard your research time like a lab session so FOMO does not dictate your next swing.
Due diligence sprints
Before you hit buy, write a one-page brief. Outline the business model, trends supporting it, competitive threats, and the exact data that would invalidate the idea. If you cannot summarize it in plain language, the play probably lives on someone else's hype deck.
Share briefs with a trusted accountability partner or faculty mentor. Fresh eyes expose confirmation bias and keep you from stretching guardrails just to be "early."
Risk stacking
Rank every idea by volatility, liquidity, and conviction. Pair a high-volatility crypto thesis with lower-beta Moon plays so one swing does not nuke your entire allocation. If your risk column fills with "unknown," park the idea in a watchlist until you can quantify it.
Translate the ranking into position sizes using your 5% cap. That way, the riskiest ideas automatically shrink while high-conviction setups earn more capital.
Feedback loop
After each trade, log what worked and what signals misled you. Track how long you researched, whether you followed the plan, and what external noise crept in. When a thesis misses, adjust your research checklist so the next hunt starts stronger.
Once a quarter, review the journal for repeating errors. Maybe you over-trade news-based catalysts or ignore macro calendar events. Codify fixes into your process so lessons actually turn into profit preservation.
Scenario drills for different asset types
Small-cap growth stock
- Thesis: new SaaS product wins three big contracts within six months.
- Guardrail: 5% position size, 17% stop-loss updated after each earnings call.
- Plan: trim 25% on a 40% run-up, redeploy only if contract backlog keeps expanding.
Metrics to monitor: revenue growth rate, customer retention, and management's hiring pace. If the metrics stall for two quarters, exit and recycle capital.
Layer-2 crypto token
- Thesis: transaction surge as a gaming partnership goes live.
- Guardrail: 3% allocation with a dollar-based loss limit instead of a percentage.
- Plan: stake only after reviewing smart-contract audits; unstake immediately if TVL drops 25% week over week.
Metrics to monitor: active wallets, gas fees compared to competitors, and ecosystem developer count. Use on-chain dashboards and Discord call notes to stay ahead of momentum shifts.
Pre-IPO secondary shares
- Thesis: a late-stage startup prices above its last funding round.
- Guardrail: invest through a platform with escrow protection and cap exposure at 4% of your Moon sleeve.
- Plan: map liquidity scenarios--lockup expiration, acquisition, or IPO delay--and assign your cash flow response to each.
Metrics to monitor: updated valuation chatter, quarterly revenue reports, and employee option exercises. If liquidity risk spikes, sell to the secondary market even at a modest discount and move back to Safe Dough.
Moon Dough scorecard
Capital discipline
Are you still under the 20% Moon allocation cap and respecting per-trade limits? Log your current percentages every Sunday. If you creep above the cap, recycle gains or pause new ideas until Safe Dough replenishes.
Process consistency
Did you follow the written plan on the last three trades? If not, document why. Maybe finals week stress or roommate chatter pushed you into improvising. Add new guardrails (like text alerts or smaller position sizes) before the next entry.
Compounding skills
List one skill sharpened each month--options Greeks, tokenomics, macro research. Track YouTube playlists, professor office hours, or alumni chats that improved your edge. Moon Dough is as much about building future career capital as it is about short-term returns.
Community intelligence
Keep a log of top Discord mods, Twitter analysts, professors, and alumni who consistently spot risk before headlines hit. Score each source on accuracy and bias, then weight their insights appropriately in your trade journal. When you upgrade your network, you upgrade your edge.
Once a month, host or join a 30-minute debrief with your trusted circle. Share wins, caution flags, and catalysts on the horizon so everyone tightens their guardrails together.
Rotate who leads the debrief so every trader practices pitching data-backed theses in plain language.
Recovery plan for rough patches
Stop the bleed
Freeze new entries, close positions below thesis, and rebuild cash to 5% of portfolio before trading again.
Post-mortem sprint
Review every losing trade: was it the plan or execution? Summarize lessons into your trade journal template.
Re-entry checklist
Only return to Moon trades once Safe Dough contributions are current, guardrails are reset, and you have two fresh theses written out.
Template: Moon Dough trade card
Ticker / asset: ______________________
Thesis: What catalyst or trend am I betting on?
Entry price & size: __________ | ________%
Stop-loss: ____________ (automatic?)
Profit targets: __________________________
Exit trigger date: ______________
Post-trade lesson: __________________________________
Screenshot this card or drop it in Notion before every trade. Future you will thank you when markets swing.
Moon Dough is optional.
Speculation should never replace your base plan. Keep your allocation disciplined, use guardrails, and remember that cash you cannot lose belongs back in Safe Dough. If you are new to investing, start there first.